NLDS Preview: Phillies Offense

This is featured in part of Phillies Nation's NLDS Preview.

The Phillies have established themselves as an offensive ball club. The Phillies have become one of the league’s top powerhouses offensively. It might be surprising to hear that the Reds collected better offensive stats as a whole, however the Phillies were without several of their star players over the course of the year.

From the top of the order to the bottom, the offense is now completely healthy.The Phillies scored 772 runs this year, and batted .260 as a team. They only hit 166 home runs, which is 58 fewer than last year. The lack of home run production can be blamed on Ryan Howard, who hit an career-low 31 home runs this year. The power drop-off can also be a side effect of numerous injuries. Chase Utley hit half as many home runs as he averages, but he didn’t get near as many at-bats with his injury.

The Phillies have relied on small ball this year more than ever. Even without Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies still managed to have the best stolen base percentage in the majors (84%).

Johnny Cueto will start game three, and the Phillies have rocked him. Cueto has a 5.96 ERA in his career against the Phillies.

Ryan Howard has faired well in his career against the Reds. He has a 1.030 OPS against Cincy. Chase Utley has similar success. He has a 1.078 OPS in his career against the Reds. With the exceptions of Jayson Werth and Carlos Ruiz, none of the regulars had career years. Compared to their potential, most of them had down years. That says a lot, considering that the Phillies still managed to finish with one of the league’s top offenses.

Watch out for: Ryan Howard (.921 career postseason OPS), Carlos Ruiz (.400 OBP this year, .905 career postseason OPS).

Postseason Predictions:

Division Series

Phillies over Reds in 4
Giants over Braves in 5
Rangers over Rays in 4
Twins over Yankees in 5

Championship Series

Phillies over Giants in 6
Rangers over Twins in 7

World Series

Phillies over Rangers in 5

Mailbag: Reds Matchup/ Phillies MVP

In this post, I answered questions presented by Pat Gallen of Phillies Nation. Click the link to see answers from other bloggers. If you have a question, please e-mail me at amanda@swingandalongdrive.com.

The Phillies will face the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS starting on Wednesday. On a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being the most favorable to the Phillies, 1 being least favorable) how do you think the Phils match up with the Reds in the opening series?

6.5. I was really hoping that the Padres would win the Wild Card because I think that the Reds are the toughest road to the NLCS. I think the Phillies are the favorites, but I still think the Reds are a tough opponent.

Offensively, I think it's fairly even. As far as collective team stats go, the Reds gained the edge. However, the Phillies were without Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard at parts of the season. Now, they are all back. The Phillies win offensively now, but the Reds are no slouch. Joey Votto scares me.

Pitching-wise, the Phillies get the advantage. The Reds are going to face three aces. On the other hand, the Reds have Bronson Arroyo slated as number two. The Reds have some decent young arms, but they have yet to reach their peak.

Overall, I pick to win the Phillies, but it's not going to be an easy series. The Phillies may have took the season series, 5-2, including a 4-game sweep at home, but the Reds still played the Phillies tough. One of those 4 games featured a miracle late-inning comeback, and two were extra inning wins.

The Phillies wrapped up the regular season yesterday, finishing 97-65. Who was the Phils regular season MVP?

Roy Halladay. Every five days is win day. He gave the Phillies a solid 250 innings. Complete Games. Shutouts. Perfect game. How can he not be the team MVP?

Second: Jayson Werth; Third: Ryan Howard

WHYY- Harry Kalas Special

I recently received an e-mail promoting Ken Burns' documentary, The Tenth Inning, which aired last night on WHYY last night, and will continue tonight. The e-mail also sent a site that reflects on Philadelphia's baseball history called Feeding the Passion. On that site, I found an interesting documentary on the career of Harry Kalas.

Swing and a Long Drive has many Harry Kalas features on this site, and we would like to add the following video to the list.


Watch the full episode. See more WHYY Specials.

NL East Champs... AGAIN



The Phillies are the National League Division Champions... AGAIN! No big deal. Been there, done that. It's another red October, and according to Roy Halladay, "it's only going to get funner."

Baseball Comes Second Today

Philadelphia Phillies (82-60) at New York Mets (69-72)

Kyle Kendrick (9-8, 4.86 ERA) vs. Mike Pelfrey (13-9, 3.96 ERA)

"From the cradle of liberty, Philadelphia Pennsylvania. Do we have closure? No. No, the heinous acts of terrorism last Tuesday will be with us for as long as we all shall live." -- Harry Kalas, 2001.

The Phillies are in the midst of a pennant race, but let's put baseball aside for a minute and remember those who lost their lives nine years ago. The tragedy on September 11, 2001 put America's pastimes on hold, but baseball eventually started the healing process.

The Phillies were one of the first teams to resume play, beating the Atlanta Braves 5-2. However, the most memorable moment from that game was a fan who carried an American Flag throughout Veterans Stadium. When the Mets returned to Shea Stadium, Mike Piazza's go-ahead home run gave everybody an unforgettable chill.

Here we are today: nine years later. The two teams meeting both helped the healing process in the United States. Today might not be about the matchups; it's about patriotism and pride for our country. We will never forget what happened on that horrible day, and we will never forget those who lost their lives.

We Remember 9/11



Call of the Day: "From the cradle of liberty, Philadelphia Pennsylvania. Do we have closure? No. No, the heinous acts of terrorism last Tuesday will be with us for as long as we all shall live." --Harry Kalas, 2001.

I woke up, looked out the window, and it was a beautiful day -- weather-wise. How quickly a blue sky can turn gray.

I was going into 4th grade, but school did not start yet, due to renovations taking place.

My mother's voice awoken me. "Oh my god! I can't believe this!" I walked into her bedroom and she was watching TV. I saw that a building was on fire, and people were running. I thought it was a movie.

"What happened?" I asked.

"A plane crashed into the World Trade Center. That's what they're saying. I think it was a bomb," my mom said frantically.

People were running for their lives, others jumped from buildings. The reporters were ducking behind cars.

On the TV broadcast, a witness called in during the newscast. "Oh my god! Here comes another plane!" I watched the plane crash into the second building.

Then, I went to my neighbors house. That was where I watched the buildings collapse. It was like a horror movie. Next, we gained knowledge about the terrorist, the pentagon, and the plane that crashed in Pennsylvania, that's target was White House.

I always felt bad for the people who died, but to be honest with you, it didn't hit me since until last year. I was watching footage of 9/11, taped by people with video cameras. Not the media, but real life people taking footage, scared to death, living it. It wasn't until then, 7 years later, that it really hit me. Maybe it was because I was old enough to understand and it was almost like reliving it.

September 11th is almost like the Pearl Harbor of my generation. It was a tragic day, something we'll never forget. My heart goes out to all those who lost a loved one.

Wolf To Face Former Club

For full gameday, visit Phillies Nation.

Milwaukee Brewers (62-73) at Philadelphia Phillies (78-58)
Brewers
Randy Wolf (10-10, 4.76) vs. Kyle Kendrick (9-7, 4.72)

In Saturday's 5-4 victory, Roy Halladay surrendered four homers, but the Phillies offense rallied, en route to their fifth straight win. The Phillies become a scary team in September, and they're just a game back in the National League East.

Former Phillie Randy Wolf will take the mound for the Brew Crew, but don't expect a Wolf Pack reunion. This is Wolf's second appearance at Citizens Bank Park in an away jersey. Phillies fans know what Wolf brings to the table. Sometimes he can be on his "A" game; other times he can get rocked. That sounds very familiar to Wolf's counterpart, Kyle Kendrick.

The offense is starting to pick it up, especially Chase Utley, Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard. Howard is always a scary hitter late in the season, thus taking the name Mr. September. Howard does not have good career numbers against Wolf, but the Phillies need Howard to continue to have his September push.